Thailand election blues

Posted by admin on December 25th, 2007 filed in Living here

 Thais, love elections, in fact they have them as often as every 18 months. Why? Because they prove to be such a windfall for everyone. Even the latest round – the first since the Sept 2006 coup – has seen a lot of money possibly changing hands despite a concerted effort to stamp out the age-old practice of vote buying. Now it’s left us all in a dilemma.

Thai politics is complicated but fascinating, and anyone with an interest in the country should pay attention to what’s going on these next two weeks, for it is a strong indicator of the direction and moral compass of the nation.

Now, as we wait to see who will form the next government, this issue of vote buying has become the trump card. Here’s how. The clear winner on Sunday was the People’s Power Party (PPP), widely regarded as a reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai juggernaut of ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra. TRT was dissolved and 111 of its executive members banned from politics, following a lengthy enquiring into cheating during the snap poll of April 2006. And despite 80 more MPs defecting to other parties, the PPP phoenix somehow managed to pull off a stunning clear majority victory. How come? I’ll leave you to join the dots. As we wait to see who can muster the needed coalition support (no party gained a clear majority although the PPP came within 8 seats), the Electoral Commission is poised to issue at least a dozen ‘red cards’ after they conclude investigating vote fraud. This could tip the scales significantly.

The PPP has already declared it has the co-operation of three small parties in forming a slim-lead coalition, but should it lose some of its seats to red cards, it will almost certainly need to pull in one of the ‘big’ three, who garnered 25 seats or more. Of these, the Democrats are their arch-opposition and will try to launch a counter coalition deal. So, the balance of power lies with two mid-sized parties, the long-running Chart Thai (37) and the TRT defectors of the Pue Pandin (25). Either can swing the result, depending on what is offered to them by the deep-pocketed PPP (believed to be financed by Thaksin). Should one blink, the other will follow, not wanting to be shut out of a new government. However, the idea of being associated with the PPP is not good for either party and here’s why.

The PPP stormed to victory on the strength of the large numbers of poor voters in the North and Northeast who are attracted by the populist policies of TRT, which the PPP have vowed to continue. But its comes with one condition which all these voters seem happy with – bringing back Mr Thaksin. The PPP campaigned openly on this ticket and it worked, they love the man. There’s only one problem, should he get off the plane back in Thailand (presently exiled in London and Hong Kong) he must be arrested for contempt of court on multiple charges of corruption launched since the coup. They are very real charges, very serious charges and probably only the tip of the iceberg. The PPP will move to drop all charges if they form the next government, and reverse the carefully and transparently deliberated decision to dissolve the TRT and ban its executives from politics for 5 year for blatantly cheating in an election. It is also likely the new PPP government will dissolve the active and powerful Assets Scrutiny Commission which is busy investigating scores of corruption cases stemming from the TRT administration.

This, the other parties cannot accept, and neither will most the well-informed and politically aware/active people of Bangkok who voted mostly for the Democrats. And should this judicial meddling occur, they will take to the streets in massive protests similar to those against Thaksin’s ‘ethics’ in early 2006 that eventually prompted the military to step in and remove him. The mid-sized parties are aware of the disunity these PPP pledges will create, and will be under extreme pressure from the current power clique, industry and economic leaders, and Bangkok elite (Royals probably notwithstanding).

So, in a nutshell, we have a dilemma. 48 % of the population want Thaksin and his cronies back.  But it’s complicated as the man will have a tough time clearing his name and the PPP will be closely monitored to see if they try to interfere in the judicial process (as they have been known to do in the past as TRT). If they try too hard to clear Thaksin (their del facto master), the coalition partners might withdraw and their government will collapse. This is a common scenario in Thai politics.

Now, lets look at the alternatives. Firstly, it’s fair to say that behind the scenes the military and Bangkok elite (a powerful lot) are trying their very best to shut down the PPPs options and keep them out. But when a party pulls off such an awesome victory it’s very difficult. There will almost certainly be retribution against key military figures for their involvement in the coup. The PPP will want to recoup the enormous monies spent on gaining their advantage and will probably resort to the same sophisticated blatant corruption for which the TRT were so despised. But in this day and age the military have to take a back seat and be subtle.

This is were the EC becomes so important. There has been widespread vote buying to be sure, and the PPP are most likely to be the most guilty. This places a lot of pressure on the EC, who are considering about 50 genuine cases that are supported by good evidence (there were more than 900 complaints originally). Disqualifying too many PPP candidates will make the election look like a farce. But they are impartial and share the military’s view that this election should be disciplined and a precedent set against vote buying. Indeed it’s widely acknowledged that Thaksin previously bought his way into power by this method.

Once the red cards have been dished out there will be re-run elections. Some candidates will get yellow cards, meaning a re-run election in their constituency which they are free to run in. The voters in those constituencies care little for election ethics and will simply vote for whoever belongs to a party that plans to join the PPP in a coalition. So, it’s a bit of redundant exercise really. Should it go the other way and the democrats find a chance to form a coalition to lead, it will have to be a six-party coalition which will be fractious and weak. This will make them sitting ducks, unable to achieve anything.

Possibly the PPP will find themselves one or two seats short of a house majority after all is said and done. They will have to make big concessions to one of the mid-sized parties to get a comfortable mandate among MPs, and one of those will be that they follow the correct judicial process in dealing with Mr Thaksin. I predict this to be the outcome, and that problems will arise down the line as they try to influence the result and suppress investigations (many of which will be against individuals who are now PPP executives). It will result in more disunity, street protests, threats from the coalition partners, fillibustering from the PPP and so on. 

Eventually it will all come to a head 18 months from now when the government collapses and new elections announced. Which is what Thais love; more money dished out in huge quantities and we’re back to square one. It’s a kind of wicked samsara of politics that Thailand finds itself perpetually in.